Tour de France 2007 who will win?

[spookyload]

Great day at the tour. Loved seeing a new face take a stage. The interview said he was cramping and over his limits. The sheer look of joy on his face when he won is what racing should be about.

[ronbo 613]

I've been out in the woods the past few days so I missed the first couple days in the Alps. Vino looks pretty beat up, to prepare all year for the Tour and have it all go up in smoke because of a $20 dollar chain must be hard to take(along with the physical injuries). I like him, but it will take a superhuman effort for him to get back to the top in GC. Levi looks a little uneven, maybe he's sandbagging a little. Rasmussen is a great climber, but he usually loses heaps in the time trials. Kind of wide open, maybe Valverde now is the best bet?

Nice to see you back TQ.

[XJ.]

Originally Posted by spookyload

Great day at the tour. Loved seeing a new face take a stage. The interview said he was cramping and over his limits. The sheer look of joy on his face when he won is what racing should be about.

Amen!

[k0NG0]

I loved today's stage, man that Colombian really did a number on it. When he caught up with the leaders and just flew past them. Up a category 1 climb, then he kept at it on the HC climb and managed to not run out of juice the small climb during the last 2-3 kilometers.

I felt really happy that he could keep the lead and take the stage. Yet another new face to me. So far, what I've seen from the Tour has been the most fun in years.

Question is if Vino can utilize the "rest" he gets during the easier stages before the Pyrenees to heal the various scrapes and aches. If so, he could possibly do something wacky and regain the lost time. But it's looking harder and harder for both him and Klöden. Still a tossup, really.

Saw a statistic saying that during the last 6-7 tours, 5.4 riders in the top ten after the first rest day are in the top ten at the finish line. Of course, the actual number for the various years ranged from 2 to 8, so it's not necessarily accurate or even interesting, but still. Lots of fairly unknown names on that list yesterday. I like it. I hope we have a surprise winner in a couple of weeks.

[spookyload]

Vino in the past has always made up a ton of time on a stage because he was just off the radar of the contenders. He did it to Lance a bunch of times where he would make up five minutes or so on a couple stages. I don't think Disco or any other team is going to let him slip away this year. His deficiet is pretty substantial and I don't see how he is going to overcome that even with the time trials left.

The flying dutchman couldn't even respond today in the mountains where he spcializes. I don't see Rassmussen doing much else. He should have saved himself for a later mountain finish.

Levi and Contador both look good. Levi hasn't really had to show much. He is close enough that good TT's and a great mountain finish could win him the race. The race winner should just be starting to come to top form now. Moreau peaked to early this year winning daupine libre and going hard in the tour. He needed to sit back and win it in the Pyrenese.

I will put my money on a Disco guy or Valverde.

[XJ.]

I agree with your thoughts spooky, though I think Klodi could still take it - he'll put a couple of minutes into the rest of the GC guys with the two ITTs, so he is still in striking range, but he will need a mountain top victory (with a time bonus) to do it.

I hope Levi's form does come up over then few days (a good ITT in Albi would be nice) to show improvement - he seems a bit behind the curve to me in terms of peak form - then again, he (with Johan's help) may be playing mind games.

[k0NG0]

At this point, I hope Contador takes the whole thing. It would be great with a young rider. Tuesday brings a mountain finish at Col d'Aubisque and a perfectly delicious stage.

There's some neighborhood patriotism re: Rasmussen, but overall I'd be happier to see a young rider take it. Contador looks really hungry, and if he managed to shake some power out of Rasmussen with the repeated attacks on Monday, perhaps he can stay strong and gain a couple of minutes at the finish, or at least get some bonus seconds.

With the TT Rasmussen managed to squeeze out a couple days ago, it will be hard för Klöden, Leipheimer or Cadel Evans to gain enough minutes to actually have a shot at the overall win, seeing as how the next TT is the penultimate stage (and last one is a notorious sprint finish stage). There's still a chance, though, and that's pretty nice. An open TdF is a fun TdF.

And Vino totally bombed and lost heaps of time. Surprising. (I missed Sunday's and Monday's stages, which sucked. Tuesday I will be around a functional TV set, but probably occupied with building an attic floor. I foresee plenty of "water breaks" or similar. Especially around the last climb...)

[XJ.]

Tuesday is the rest day kONGO.

[swannema]

They should just stop the Tour, or at least take those guys out that have cheated in the past. I can't understand that they let Rasmussen continue, they know that he tried to get away from the tests and only because of formalities he can continue.

[XJ.]

Originally Posted by swannema

They should just stop the Tour, or at least take those guys out that have cheated in the past. I can't understand that they let Rasmussen continue, they know that he tried to get away from the tests and only because of formalities he can continue.

Unfortunately, including all those who use some sort of performance enhancing drug (PED) would probably wipe out 1/2 the peleton, if not more

[swannema]

If there was any doubt about doping during the tour, then it was wiped (spelling ?)out today. I can't believe the stupidity of those guys. The drugs must kill their brain cells.

[XJ.]

Well, they are athletes, not rocket scientists.

[Centurion]

Originally Posted by swannema

If there was any doubt about doping during the tour, then it was wiped (spelling ?)out today. I can't believe the stupidity of those guys. The drugs must kill their brain cells.

Astana Team Pulls Out of Tour De France

Astana Quits Tour De France After Alexandre Vinokourov Tests Positive for Banned Transfusion.

[XJ.]

Someone else has tested positive. It's a rider from stage 11 who's blood has exogeneous testosterone. The name hasn't been released yet, but probably will be soon (clearly they are waiting this after todays stage ends).


It's Moreni from Cofidis. He has been ejected and the team chose to leave the TdF.

Very sad state of affairs...

[Vheox]

Originally Posted by XJ.

Unfortunately, including all those who use some sort of performance enhancing drug (PED) would probably wipe out 1/2 the peleton, if not more

I believe it would wipe out everyone but the amateurs...

It's sad to say, but every single rider who is actually competing has taken some kind of drug or another. It's hard to stay hopeful when every single Athlete you see come and go from the Tour has some sort of incident involving drugs. In the end, I just think the Tour is simply impossible to compete in while being clean. The stages are just too arduous and too fast for a "normal" human being to compete.

Doping started many years ago, and it's not a surprise to see the old Superstars of the Tour dying when they are 50 years old... or less. There needs to be some serious enforcement on PED's. Not just one random test if you win a stage, which you can always bail on. But even if you tested every rider every day, they will probably find other drugs that aren't detected yet.

I have been watching the Tour since I was a little kid, and when I mean watching, I mean watching the whole thing! I used to spent my summers lying on the couch watching the Tour.

The bottom line, everyone is doped. Every year another "scandal" errupts (although it shouldn't be called a scandal anymore since it isn't very shocking). Eddy Merckx did it back in the day, Lance did it, Ulrich, now Vino... nobody is clean in this sport. Makes Baseball look good and Barry Bonds look like a role model. It's pathetic.